Staff Reporter:
Finance Minister Amir Khosru Mahmud Chowdhury is set to place his maiden national budget for the fiscal year FY27 in the Jatiya Sangsad today, aiming to advance Bangladesh’s transition towards a more investment-driven and “trillion-dollar economy” through higher growth targets, regulatory reforms and expanded fiscal measures.
The total outlay of the budget is likely to be set at Tk 9.38 lakh crore, the largest national budget in the country’s history.
This will be the first budget of the BNP government this time following a landslide victory in parlia-mentary election held on February 12 this year. A BNP-led government had last presented its nation-al budget for the fiscal year 2006-‘07 under then Finance Minister M. Saifur Rahman.
According to Finance Division officials, the budget is being prepared under the broad theme of “Eco-nomic Democratization and Deregulation: Bangladesh’s Journey Towards a Trillion-Dollar Economy,”.
The budget is set to place strong emphasis on human resource development aligning with its “Bangladesh First” vision. The budget prioritizes education, health, employment, social protection, and entrepreneur-ship to build long-term economic capacity and foster a modern, knowledge-based, and inclusive econo-my.
The budgetary allocation shifts focus away from physical infrastructure towards human capital develop-ment, with the highest allocations in education and health sectors.
The probable key highlights of the budget are: high education and health sector alloca-tion, entrepreneurship development fund: Tk 225 crore, SME entrepreneurship fund: Tk 2,000 crore, possible partial implementation of the new pay scale for the public servants, possible introduction of an “E-Health Card” programme for 2.5 million citizens aiming to strengthen universal health coverage through digitalization of health services, allocations in different social safety net programmes including in farmer cards, family cards, and a target of creation of overseas employment opportunities for 10 mil-lion people.
Besides, the government has put an emphasis on creative economic activities to keep the country’s youth away from drugs, terrorism, and extremism. As part of this, an allocation of Tk 300 crore is likely to be set aside in the upcoming national budget.
Officials said the budget reflects the government’s electoral commitments and the future demand of the economy.
The next budget is being described as a shift toward human capital–driven growth, aiming to support a knowledge-based economy and expand employment opportunities both at home and abroad.
Record Budget Size and Key Fiscal Indicators:
The FY27 budget is likely to propose an expenditure of Tk 9.38 lakh crore, reflecting continued expan-sionary fiscal planning amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures.
Of the total outlay, Tk 6.95 lakh crore is expected to be financed through domestic revenue sources, while the remainder will come from borrowing and external assistance.
The overall fiscal deficit is likely to be projected at Tk 2.51 lakh crore, equivalent to 3.6 percent of GDP, which remains within internationally recommended thresholds for developing economies.
Finance ministry officials estimate the gross domestic product (GDP) size for FY27 at Tk 68.30 lakh crore, with a growth target of 6.5 percent and an inflation target of 7.5 percent.
Economists note that while the growth projection reflects optimism, maintaining macroeconomic stabil-ity—particularly controlling inflation and improving revenue mobilization—will remain a key chal-lenge.
Policy Shift Towards Deregulation and Investment Facilitation:
A central feature of the upcoming budget is a significant push toward deregulation aimed at improving the ease of doing business and attracting both domestic and foreign investment.
The government is expected to introduce reforms to simplify licensing procedures, accelerate business approvals and modernise tax administration.
The budget speech will reportedly include a dedicated chapter on “Ease of Doing Business through De-regulation,” highlighting efforts to reduce bureaucratic delays, eliminate duplication of documentation, and streamline investment processes.
Officials said a “Digital Application Platform” and a unified “One-Stop Service” system branded as “Banglabiz” is likely to be introduced to centralize licensing, certification, and approval procedures. These reforms aim to reduce face-to-face interactions between businesses and regulatory authorities.
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) is expected to undergo extensive automation under the new fiscal framework. Key initiatives include full online corporate tax return filing, year-round submission facili-ties, and direct electronic tax refunds into taxpayers’ bank accounts.
Late filers may face higher tax rates, while early filers could receive incentives. The reforms also include a mobile application to facilitate e-return submissions and reduce procedural delays.
In addition, tax dispute resolution mechanisms are expected to be streamlined through faster processes in tribunals, appellate bodies, and alternative dispute resolution (ADR) systems.
Financing the Budget Deficit:
The FY27 budget deficit is likely to be projected at Tk 2.51 lakh crore, which will be financed through a combination of domestic and external borrowing.
According to official estimates, Tk 1.16 lakh crore (46 percent) will come from foreign sources, while Tk 1.35 lakh crore (54 percent) will be mobilized domestically.
Domestic borrowing includes an estimated Tk 1.20 lakh crore from the banking system and Tk 15,000 crore from savings instruments.
Inflation and Stability:
Inflation remains a key concern in the lead-up to the budget. Recent data indicates point-to-point infla-tion at 9.42 percent in May, significantly above the government’s target level.
Policy analysts suggest that achieving the 7.5 percent inflation target for FY27 will require coordinated monetary and fiscal tightening, alongside improved supply chain management and stronger market over-sight of essential commodities.
The budget places strong emphasis on boosting investment as the main driver of future growth. Experts note that private sector confidence, infrastructure development and regulatory predictability will be es-sential to achieving the projected GDP growth rate.
According to policy analysts, improving the ease of doing business, strengthening financial sector stabil-ity, and accelerating project implementation will play a critical role in sustaining economic momentum.
Special focus is expected on agriculture, export-oriented industries, manufacturing expansion, remittance inflows, and infrastructure connectivity.
Challenges:
Despite ambitious targets, the success of the FY27 budget will depend heavily on effective implementa-tion capacity, revenue performance, and macroeconomic stability.
Challenges such as sluggish private investment, limited revenue mobilization, and global economic un-certainty continue to pose risks to fiscal projections.
However, policymakers remain optimistic that ongoing structural reforms and improved governance mechanisms will help unlock new investment opportunities and support medium-term growth ambitions.
As the Finance Minister prepares to place the budget before the national parliament today, attention now turns to how the government balances expansionary development goals with the need for fiscal prudence and inflation control in a challenging economic environment.
